Earnings trajectories during a crisis in a segmented labor market: Argentina (2019–2023)

Abstract

This study aims to dynamically analyze changes in labor income in Argentina before, during,and after the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to characterize the economic trajectories ofworkers and assess their relationship with occupational inequality during such period. Byemploying panel data from a national urban survey, we implemented a novel methodologicalstrategy that combines latent growth curve (LGC) models to define income trajectories andmultinomial logistic regression analysis so as to evaluate the determinants of these trajectories. After extensive analysis, the results confirm the existence of divergent trajectories. Onthe one hand, downward trajectories primarily affect socially disadvantaged workers in theinformal sector. On the other hand, stable or upward trajectories are observed mainly amongindividuals employed in formal economic units, particularly those with medium or high levelsof education. These findings support the literature that highlights the regressive impact oflabor market segmentation and social inequalities on income and employment opportunitiesfor certain groups of workers in economies characterized by structural heterogeneities atboth the productive and occupational levels.