Navigating Uncertainty: The Role of Mood and Confidence in Decision-Making Flexibility and Performance

Abstract

Dealing with uncertainty is a pivotal skill for adaptive decision-making across various real-life contexts. Cognitive models suggest that individuals continuously update their knowledge based on past choices and outcomes. Traditionally, uncertainty has been linked to negative states such as fear and anxiety. Recent evidence, however, highlights that uncertainty can also evoke positive emotions, such as surprise, interest, excitement, and enthusiasm, depending on one’s task expectations. Despite this, the interplay between mood, confidence, and learning remains underexplored. Some studies indicate that self-reported mood does not always align with confidence, as these constructs evolve on different timescales. We propose that mood influences confidence, thereby enhancing decision flexibility—defined as the ability to switch effectively between exploration and exploitation. This increased flexibility is expected to improve task performance by increasing accuracy. Our findings support this hypothesis, revealing that confidence modulates exploration/exploitation strategies and learning rates, while mood affects reward perception and confidence levels. These findings indicate that metacognition entails a dynamic balance between exploration and exploitation, integrating mood states with high-level cognitive processes.