Simulation models and probabilities: a Bayesian defense of the value-free ideal

Abstract

Some philosophers of science have recently argued that the epistemic assessment of complex simulation models, such as climate models, cannot be free of the influence of social values. In their view, the assignment of probabilities to the different hypotheses or predictions that result from simulations presupposes some methodological decisions that rest on value judgments. In this article, I criticize this claim and put forward a Bayesian response to the arguments from inductive risk according to which the influence of social values on the calculation of probabilities is negligible. I conclude that the epistemic opacity of complex simulations, such as climate models, does not preclude the application of Bayesian methods.