Climate change and shifting distributions of medicinal and aromatic Lippia and Salimenaea species (Verbenaceae) in southern South America: a Species Distribution Modeling approach

Abstract

Backgroundand aims – Climate change is drivingbiodiversity loss globally, including species with medicinal and aromaticproperties. In this study, we assessed the potential distributions of three plants, Lippia alba, L. turbinata, and Salimenaeaintegrifolia, widely consumed in South America. In this study we aimed i) to predict their currentgeographic distribution through SDM, ii) to estimate the importance of abioticfactors in their distribution, iii) to evaluate the potential change in futuredistribution under different scenarios of climate change. Materialand methods – UsingMaxEnt, we modeled the current and future potential distributions of thesethree species under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5,and 8.5) for the period 2070 (2061–2080).Keyresults – The distribution of L. alba is primarily influenced byprecipitation seasonality and mean annual temperature, whereas L. turbinata and S. integrifolia are shaped by mean annual temperature and annualprecipitation. The most favorable areas for L.alba are found in the Chacoan, Espinal, Pampean, Paranaense, Caatinga,Atlantic, and Amazonian biogeographic provinces (2,250,640 km2). L. turbinata thrives in the Chacoan,Espinal, Monte, Pampean, and Yungas provinces (671,851 km2), while S. integrifolia is best suited to theMonte, Chacoan, and Puna/Prepuna regions (197,022 km2). Our resultsindicate heterogeneous responses to climate change in the future: L. turbinata and S. integrifolia may experience range expansion (15.12% to 19.86% and 1.48%to 3.46%, respectively),while L. alba is projected to facerange contraction (-4.60 to -23.23%), particularly in the northern edge of itsdistribution. Conclusion– These findings emphasize thespecies-specific responses of medicinal and aromatic plants to climate change.Moreover, they highlight the need to develop tailored conservation strategies tosafeguard vulnerable populations and preserve valuable medicinal resources.