Efecto hipotético del cambio climático sobre la distribución de dos especies leñosas dominantes del Chaco Serrano

Abstract

Lithraea molleoides (Anacardiaceae) and Schinopsis haenkeana (Anacardiaceae) are native tree species of great importance in the Chaco Serrano, a region poorly studied in relation to the possible effects that climate change (CC) could have on its extension. Species distribution models are one of the most used tools for tree species conservation in the context of the global climate change. These type of models allow to study the potential distribution of species under current and hypothetical future conditions and the effectiveness of protected areas in representing species. Using modeling techniques we studied the potential distribution of both species for current and hypothetical future climatic conditions (period 2041-2060). Also, we used geographic information systems to determine the potential protected area. The models had a high concordance with the known distribution for both species and showed a potential distribution area of 1124737 km2 for L. molleoides, and 158491 km2 for S. haenkeana. Under climate change scenarios, L. molleoides showed a reduction of 18% in the potential distribution, while S. haenkeana showed an increase of 14% in the potential distribution. For both species, the representation in protected areas of categories I to IV of the International Union for Conservation of Nature was less than 10% of the potential distribution area. Thus, we suggest increasing the protected area considering the potential distribution under future climatic warming scenarios, and to implement conservation strategies integrating the sustainable use of the forest.