Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change

Abstract

ncreasing global food demand will require more food production1 withoutfurther exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adaptingto climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models withimproved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. Thiswas explored for current and climate change scenarios across representativesites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and sourcetraits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applicationsunder both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios.To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yieldunder a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer usewould need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidablylead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our resultsshow the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen useefficiency, along with yield potential.