Climate change and precipitation variability over the western ‘Pampas’ in Argentina

Abstract

This work focuses on the analysis of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the central region of southern Central Argentina (SCA), a climate transition area which has experienced an important agricultural expansion. For this purpose, gauge station precipitation datasets available in the area were extensively used. The annual cycle shows a defined dry season (May–August) and wet season (September–April). Wet season represents over 85% of annual totals. A regionalization analysis of wet-season precipitation suggests five subregions with spatially homogeneous precipitation variability in SCA. Three out the five subregions are located in central SCA. Conveniently devised precipitation indices for the latter subregions show the presence of significant precipitation jumps by the early 1970s, and to a minor extent, the mid-1960s. Precipitation jumps are responsible for the observed long-term trends in central SCA, which explain positive precipitation changes over 30–40% of regional averages in the period 1922–2012. The presence of stationary and non-stationary components in SCA precipitation variability remotely connects the region mainly with variations in equatorial Pacific SSTs. The assessment of greenhouse gases concentration effects on future projections of wet-season precipitation over central SCA is investigated by means of multi-model analysis of historical experiment, and the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5), provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Results suggest an overall increased precipitation, roughly 15% respect to present climate, under most severe future scenario.