Deluge of costs: Navigating the economic impacts of flooding in Egyptian port cities

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic costs of catastrophic flooding in three Egyptian coastal cities, resulting from either sea level rise or intense rainfall. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, we assess the higher-order impacts of physical capital loss on both regional and national economies. Leveraging global flood hazard maps for various scenarios and return periods and a 100-meter-resolution buildings exposure model, which estimates the replacement value of residential and non-residential buildings at each floor level, an estimation of the share of physical capital at risk is made. Our analysis covers Egypt’s main port cities on the Mediterranean Sea – Alexandria, Damietta, and Port Said – under seven scenarios and three intensities of destruction. Results indicate significant variability in economic impacts, with coastal flooding due to sea levelrise posing a more substantial threat to Port Said and Damietta, whereas pluvial flooding from intense rainfall more heavily impacting Alexandria. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted investments in climate resilience, particularly for coastal infrastructure, to mitigate future economic losses.