Spatially Explicit Modeling as a Tool for Collaborative-Oriented Management of Patagonian Forest Landscapes: Can We Reduce Fire Extent and Severity by Basin-Oriented Management?

Abstract

In this chapter, we integrate the accumulated local knowledge regarding productive, administrative, and environmental variables of a rural community within the Río Manso Inferior Valley, Río Negro Province, to analyze the constraints and potential effects of fire-risk reducing forest management. We use a fire spread simulation package developed by the research group to analyze potential outcomes of different flammability-reducing activities that are promoted by the current administration and conclude that shrubland management may be the most efficient action for reducing both fire size and likelihood of settlements being affected. We propose that, in order to implement forest management at a landscape level, it is of key importance to generate bottom-up agreements regarding the short-, medium-, and long-term objectives of forest management between the Provincial administration and the local population. The use of spatially explicit models that simulate alternative scenarios may only be an adequate tool for facilitating such agreements if they integrate the local socioeconomic and environmental variables. Even though the frequency and magnitude of large fires may respond to global trends, they are intrinsically local processes that affect and are affected by the productive activities of any given landscape. Our results indicate that both forest extraction and livestock are only consuming a marginal fraction of the biomass that is produced in the system, leading to accumulation of flammable material. Promoting increments in production of firewood as well as the recovery of paddocks invaded by weeds may therefore not only reduce the extent and severity of large fires but also improve the socioeconomic and environmental resilience of the valley.