Searching for solar-like interannual to bidecadal effects on temperature and precipitation over a Southern Hemisphere location

Abstract

Precipitation and temperature over Tucuman (26.8°S, 65.2°W), a province located in the Northwestern region of Argentina, is analyzed for the interval 1889–2018 in search of any plausible statistical associations with impacts and responses from solar variability. The aim of the study was to contribute data to the controversial issue of climate variations in response to both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The long-term behavior of Tucuman climatic series involves overall warming and augmented precipitation tendencies, possibly linked to the increasing greenhouse gases concentration or even other local man-made factors like increasing urbanization. In addition, we identified sporadic ~4 and ~8-year periodicities, and a ~20-year oscillation after the 1950–1960's. Based on the physical hint that bidecadal periodicities detected in climate parameters are probably not linked to the solar 11-year-like irradiance cycles, we expand our scope of investigations to include another effect which has been recently considered in the dynamics of large rivers as “the planetary hypothesis of the solar cycles”. This new hypothesis supposes that the barycentric dynamics of the Sun could be involved in modulations of the intrinsic solar magnetic and radiative output cycles and therefore Earth-bound climatic responses. Thus, we present a wide-ranging statistical analysis of correlation, cross spectrum, and coherence between Tucuman's climatic series and solar orbital parameters, including also the analysis of hemispheric mean temperatures. Our results show significant coherence at the ~20-year cycle, which is clearly present in the Sun's barycentric dynamic that could in turn be linked to some features of the quasi-decadal solar activity variations.