Extinction and persistence in a temperature-driven, stage-structured stochastic model of Dalbulus maidis dynamics with nonlinear density-dependent regulation

Abstract

We present an extension of a previously developed stochastic, stage-structured model of Dalbulus maidis (corn leafhopper), an important pest and vector in maize crops. The extended model introduces nonlinear density-dependent regulation on the nymphal stage, mediated by a carrying capacity that dynamically depends on the leaf area of maize plants. Both insect and host-plant dynamics are explicitly modeled, but the interaction is asymmetric, as the plant is not affected by the insect in the present formulation. Our main objective is to explore how the interplay between temperature-driven development and host-plant dynamics shapes the long-term behavior of the insect population, leading to either extinction or persistence. Using simulations parameterized with laboratory and field data, we analyze how temperature and maize development affect insect dynamics, and assess whether the model can reproduce observed abundance patterns under realistic conditions. This modeling framework provides a biologically grounded and flexible basis for future extensions, including pathogen transmission and bidirectional feedback between the maize and the insect.