Will climate change cause spatial mismatch between plants and their pollinators? A test using Andean cactus species

Abstract

Climate change can disrupt mutualisms by causing temporal or spatial mismatch between interacting species. However, the effects of climate change forecasts on biotic interactions remain poorly studied. In cactus species, pollination constitutes a fundamental process in the production of fruits and seeds. Thus, we aimed to analyse the impact of future climate change on the geographical distributions of 11 cactus species from the southern Central Andes and their spatial match with their pollinators. We used species distribution modelling to forecast the geographic range shifts of these cactus species and their pollinators under two future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. We predicted geographic range contractions under future scenarios that reached almost 80% for some cactus species. Our results indicate that the geographical distributions of cacti would be constrained by the presence of the pollinator species on which they depend in the present; however, climate change would not cause spatial mismatch between cacti and their animal pollinators in the future. For most cactus species, we predicted an increase in the spatial match with their mutualists under future scenarios. This is the first study that estimates the geographic range of cacti using both abiotic and biotic factors. Given the importance that positive interactions have on the life cycle of many plant species, our approach could be used to better understand the potential effects of climate change, particularly on species that are of special interest for conservation actions.