Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

Addressing the World Health Organization’s noncommunicable disease (NCD) “bestbuys” is key to reducing the disease burden in Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC). Yet, the potential impact of addressing NCD risk factors on current healthexpenditures (CHE) in LAC countries is unknown. This study uses both GlobalBurden of Disease (GBD) data and administrative information to model the impactof addressing four risk factors on CHE trends for 24 LAC countries. A comparativerisk assessment model estimates changes in CHE associated with reducing fiveNCDs. Reducing the prevalence of the four risk factors by 10% could save $ 185billion in cumulative expenditure by 2050 (1.32% of cumulative expenditure from2020 to 2050) for all LAC countries assessed, with substantial heterogeneity acrossrisk factors. Reducing the prevalence of high blood pressure had the largest impact.On average, a reduction of 10% in high blood pressure, tobacco use, high bloodglucose, and alcohol use would reduce cumulative CHE by US$59bn (0.4% of thecumulative CHE by 2050), US$68bn (0.5%), US$46bn (0.3%), and US$12bn (0.1%),PLOS Global Public Health | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004791 July 18, 2025 2 / 12respectively for all LAC countries. While addressing NCD risk factors is a key stepto improving health in LAC countries, the impact on CHE is relatively small thoughmeaningful in absolute terms, and additional strategies need to be implemented tocontrol increasing CHE levels that threaten health systems’ sustainability.