Spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in Algeria during the third wave

Abstract

The differential geographic impact of the third wave of COVID-19 is unknown in Algeria. We thus analyze the spatiotemporal variations of cases and deaths of COVID-19 in Algeria, between January and mid-August 2021. Cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were aggregated at the wilaya (province) level. The space-time permutation scan statistic was applied retrospectively to identify spatial-temporal clusters of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We detected 14 spatio-temporal clusters of COVID-19 cases, with only one high risk cluster. Among the 13 low risk clusters, 7 clusters emerged before the start of the third wave and were mostly located in wilayas with lower population density compared to the clusters that emerged during the third wave. For deaths, the largest geographic low-risk cluster emerged in southern Algeria, between April and early July 2021. Northern and coastal wilayas should be prioritized when allocating resources and implementing various quarantine and isolation measures to slow viral transmission.