Quantitative risk assessment for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli in ground beef hamburgers in Argentina

Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment was developed for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (E. coli VTEC) following hamburger consumption. The assessment considers initial contamination levels, cross-contamination and decontamination events during the cattle slaughter process and the distribution, storage and consumption patterns in Argentina and in similar countries in Latin-American. The model predicted an infection risk of 8.12x10-7, a probability of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS) of 4.6x10-8 and a probability of mortality of 5.9x10-9 per meal for adults. For children, the estimates per meal were 3.23x10-7, 1.8x10-8 and 6.31x10-10 for infection, HUS and mortality, respectively. The risk of infection and HUS, were sensitive to the type of storage at home (r = -0.416), slaughterhouse storage temperature (r = 0.240) and bacterial concentration in the cattle hide (r = 0.239). There was an association between home preparation of hamburgers (r = -0.116) and the risk of illness, although this was a result of the type of storage at retail (r = -0.110) and at home and not their intrinsic characteristics. The most sensitive stages of the process were identified through the risk assessment and these can be used as a basis for measures of risk management.