The impact of alternative land use scenarios in the sustainabiility of protected mountain forests

Abstract

Native forests in mountain regions are important elements for the tourism sector. Considering the ecosystem services provided, conservation in these forests is gaining popularity on the agenda of governmental actors at different scales. Additionally, the combined housing crisis and tourism development impact the real-estate market, causing further land pressure on forestlands. In Argentina, the Patagonia region is one of the most attractive and visited tourism destinations in the country. Protected areas in this region are territories where conservation, tourism, and traditional productive activities converge, increasing the pressure on the territory. In this context, our aim was to analyze the impact of different land-use future scenarios in a particular mountainous protected area in Patagonia as a case study. To do so, actors´ interests and power, as well as sustainability indicators based on a pressure-state-response methodology using the SDGs targets as baselines, were used to develop a set of future scenarios based on the main land-use pressures affecting the territory: formal tourism development, informal tourism development, conservation intensification, forest sector growth, and livestock expansion. Following a multivariate analysis, we selected the main influencing indicators acting as tipping points to evaluate the level of sustainability of the hypothetical scenarios by developing land-use models. Results showed that the development of tourism can have different winners and losers depending on the formality of the activity, and that the conservation scenario may not be the most sustainable when considering the cultural dimension of the study area. Additionally, the optimal scenario for high sustainable value may be a combination of characteristics from the different contrasting activities. Further, it is important to analyze the informal interests of actors, as they may play a crucial role.