Development Rate of the Larvae of the Mosquito Aedes albifasciatus: A Mathematical Model as Decision Tool

Abstract

The flood mosquito Aedes albifasciatus adapts to the thermal conditions of differentregions and presents demographic explosions, causing problems for livestock farmingand public health, including outbreaks of western equine encephalitis. BetweenOctober 2019 and June 2021, their larval development was monitored in Tandiltemporary pools, recording 35 events. For each one, the larval development time andthe average daily mean temperatures were calculated. The data were fitted to severaltemperature-dependent bibliography nonlinear models for insects, previously settingthe lower and upper thermal development thresholds (for Ae. albifasciatus in thestudied region) at 7.62 °C and 33 °C, respectively. A new model, based on combinationsof factors present in bibliography models, is proposed to estimate the larvaldevelopment rate as a function of temperature. The models were validated using theroot mean square error (RMSE) and concordance index (d). In addition, the distributionof percentage frequencies of the difference between the length of the period estimatedby the models and that recorded in the field was calculated. The best model had thehighest agreement index (0.9), the lowest RMSE (0.01), and the highest agreementbetween the estimated and observed development rate (83%). This model could beuseful as a pre- diction tool of Ae. albifasciatus abundance peaks in the context offuture outbreaks of western equine encephalitis in South America.