Who is who? Competing coalitions in climate-AFOLU politics in Argentina

Abstract

This article analyzes the main actor coalitions shaping Argentina’s climate-AFOLU policy subsystem from 2015 to 2024 using the advocacy coalition framework (ACF). Two key coalitions are identified: a dominant productivist coalition, formed primarily by farmers, agribusiness organizations and supportive state actors, that emphasizes economic expansion, agricultural competitiveness and efficiency in the use of natural resources; and a minority socio-environmental coalition, led byenvironmental NGOs and diverse social actors, advocating for ecological reforms in AFOLU production systems and restrictions on land-use changes affecting forests, pastures and wetlands. While both coalitions support climate action, they differ in policy goals, reform scope and advocacy capacity. The national environmental authority plays a key brokerage role, pushing other government sectors to increase mitigation ambitions. Policy outcomes have largely reflected the productivist coalition’s dominance. However, the incremental approach of the Paris Agreementhas created openings to revisit national mitigation goals, pressuring the dominant coalition to address the AFOLU’s role in the low-carbon transition. This policy subsystem consolidated during a period of relative receptivity to climate issues among mainstream political actors. The 2023 election of President Javier Milei, however, marks a significant political shift, raising questions about the future direction of climate policy in Argentina.