Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) as extreme distribution indicator of two Neotropical fruit fly parasitoids in irrigated drylands of Argentina

Abstract

The figitid Ganaspis pelleranoi and the braconid Doryctobracon areolatus (Hym: Braconidae, Opiinae) are wide-ranging (from Florida, USA to Argentina) fruit fly parasitoids with tropical and subtropical distribution with a wet and temperate climate. In Argentina, both parasitoid species are thought to be restricted to the subtropical rainforests of the northwest and northeast, locally known as 'Yungas' and 'Paranaense' forests, respectively. However, these species recently have been recorded at the Monte and Thistle of the Prepuna eco-region, an arid region of central-western Argentina. Despite the extreme environmental conditions, anthropic artificial irrigation seems to be playing a fundamental role in fostering the presence and persistence of these species. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were developed to assess the suitability of these areas to harbor both species. The present work is a first approach to identify suitable areas for the distribution of these two fruit fly biological control agents in the American continent; based on 19 bioclimatic variables. Furthermore, the models resulting from including the new records in the 'Monte' eco-region suggest that local populations may become adapted to particular micro-environmental conditions generated by artificial irrigation. Models revealed that these artificial oases are suitable for G. pelleranoi but seem to be unsuitable for D. areolatus. This first and new approach to the area suitability of these species invites to produce models that reflect actual distribution including more records of presence in oases with similar conditions, thus decreasing the bias of the model generated by over reliance on areas with higher humidity (forest), which correspond to the distribution known before the inclusion of the new records.