Scenario of global climate change in the Stratosphere-Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere system

Abstract

The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes net heating in the troposphere and net cooling at higher atmospheric levels, which results in long-term changes of many other quantities in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Here, we briefly present a scenario of global climatic changes in the Stratosphere-Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere system. Changes in all quantities in this system together create a qualitatively consistent scenario. The main driver of these changes is carbon dioxide, but some role is played also by the stratospheric ozone/ozone depleting substances and by the secular change of the Earth magnetic field. Observation-based trends and trends derived from model simulations agree with each other qualitatively and often also quantitatively.