Effusion rate estimation based on solidified lava flows: Implications for volcanic hazard assessment in the Negros de Aras monogenetic volcanic field, northern Chile

Abstract

Effusion rate is the instantaneous lava flow output by a vent. It is one of the most important factors that govern the emplacement and dynamics of lava flows and can be determined by direct measurements or estimated through modeling. The Negros de Aras monogenetic volcanic field, located in the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes, is the largest volcanic field in northern Chile. It is situated north of the active Socompa volcano and south of the Salar de Atacama basin, consisting of scoria cones and lava flows. Here, we estimate the effusion rates of three overlapping and representative solidified lava flows from this volcanic field applying an iterative procedure using the Q-LavHA GIS plugin, where the effusion rate is treated as an unknown parameter and the solution is reached by comparing the simulated results with the real extension of the flows. The pre-eruptive surface was reconstructed using the 12 m resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model. Other required input parameters for the modeling (e.g., channel ratio, viscosity, temperature) were estimated through geomorphometric, petrographic, and geochemical analysis. The estimated effusion rates vary between 14 and 113 m3/s, comparable with rates measured elsewhere. The method was validated by applying it to two directly measured (Nyamuragira 2006; Mount Etna 2001) and one calculated effusion rate (Lentiscal 2450 BP, Canary Islands). The estimated effusion rates gave an average underestimation of 10%. Considering this percentage of adjustment, the effusion rates for the three studied lava flows from the Negros de Aras monogenetic volcanic field vary from 15 m3/s to 124 m3/s. Our results provide valuable information for mitigating volcanic risk in the event of future lava flow eruptions, which could affect nearby villages and mining operations.