Effects of Thermal Heterogeneity and Egg Mortality on Differences in the Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Over Short Distances in Temperate Argentina

Abstract

In temperate regions, the seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is mainly influenced by temperature, whereas the probability of local extinction depends on the egg mortality during the cold season. The aim of the current study was to assess the importance of temperature and egg mortality in determining the differences in the oviposition dynamics of Ae. aegypti between favorable and less favorable areas in Buenos Aires City (Argentina). Year-round temperature dynamics were monitored, and oviposition dynamics were experimentally studied with ovitraps at two sites. Daily egg mortality values were calculated from a previous study performed at the same sites. The relative contribution of the differences in temperature and egg mortality between sites to the oviposition dynamics was assessed by means of a mathematical stochastic population dynamics model for Ae. aegypti. The results showed higher temperature and lower daily egg mortality at the site where higher oviposition activity was recorded. A larger influence of temperature than of egg mortality on population abundance during most of the activity season was detected in the results of the simulations. Our results showed a temperature gradient that relates to the distance to the Río de la Plata river and contributes to explaining the spatial heterogeneity in Ae. aegypti population abundances previously reported. The hypothesis of local extinctions because of egg mortality during the winter was not supported by the present analysis. The differences between field oviposition dynamics and simulation results suggest that rainfall might also be an important variable under extremely dry conditions.