The influence of Atlantic High on seasonal rainfall in Argentina

Abstract

The objective of this work is to quantify the influence of the position and intensity of the Atlantic High (AH) on seasonal rainfall in Argentina. Monthly precipitation data in 68 stations from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina, the Secretariat of Water Resource and the Territorial Authority of the Limay, Neuquén, and Negro rivers basins (AIC) were used. Correlation was the methodology used to identify the link between seasonal rainfall and some indices especially defined to detect the position and intensity of the anticyclone. Precipitation composites of the years when the value of these indices was extremely high (greater than their second tercile) and extremely low (lower than their first tercile) were built for every season. They were analyzed and compared with humidity anomaly transport composites for the same sets of years in order to study circulation patterns associated with seasonal rainfall anomalies. Results indicate that when the AH is intensified, winter rainfall increases in central Argentina and spring rainfall increases in northern Cuyo region. When the AH is displaced towards the north of its mean position, autumn rainfall is favored in the northeast and central and south Patagonia, meanwhile winter and spring rainfall decreases in central Argentina. When the AH is displaced towards the east of its mean position, summer rainfall decreases in Central Andes. Finally, AH indices were used to detect the influence on rainfall in advance. Correlations between seasonal rainfall and the defined indices that characterize the anticyclone in the previous month suggest that there is some rainfall predictability, especially during spring in almost every region in Argentina.