The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geographies of suicide in Argentina

Abstract

Background: There is a knowledge gap regarding the geographic distribution of suicide risk and its associated socio-demographic factors in the years following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to describe the spatial patterns of suicide risk in Argentina from 2015 to 2022 and identify contributing factors.Methods: Suicide mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health of the Nation. Multivariate Bayesian hierarchical regression models were employed to assess associations between suicide risk and three key variables: population density, socioeconomic status, and an index of social fragmentation.Results: In 2020, high-risk suicide areas in the center-east of the country, which had persisted in previous years, were no longer observed. However, these high-risk areas re-emerged during 2021–2022. Except for 2017 and 2019, suicide risk was consistently higher in rural areas. Elevated values of the social fragmentation index were associated with increased suicide risk during 2021–2022.Conclusions: The post-2020 period reflects a return to the pre-pandemic geographic pattern of suicide in Argentina, with rural areas remaining persistent high-risk zones. However, in the post-pandemic era, suicide appears to disproportionately affect areas with weaker social ties.