Predictive modeling and spatiotemporal analysis of TB in Argentina: Advancing control efforts through machine learning

Abstract

Objectives: To improve prediction and understanding of TB dynamics in Argentina, identifying key risk factors and high-incidence areas to inform surveillance and public health control strategies. Study design: Retrospective observational study.Methods: We applied (i) machine learning models (Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression) to predict treatment outcomes, (ii) time series models (ARIMA, SARIMAX, and LSTM) toforecast weekly TB case counts, and (iii) spatial analysis tools (LISA, Moran´s I) to identify high-incidence clusters.Results: Weekly TB notifications increased after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (t = 4.75, p = 2.10 × 10 6), with LISA revealing two significant clusters (p < 0.05). HGB predicted treatment outcomes (ROC–AUC = 0.86; top predictors: HIV, treatment duration, age). LSTM outperformed SARIMAX (RMSE 3.50 → 2.88 in Salta–Jujuy; 3.82 → 0.89 in Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA)–Buenos Aires; 18 %/ 77 %). A sex-difference test indicated higher infection among men (p < 0.05).Conclusions: Combining ML and spatial tools enhances TB monitoring by supporting early identification of high-risk areas, improving epidemiological surveillance, and enabling targeted, data-driven public health interventions in Argentina.