Changes in mean and extreme climate in southern South America under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C

Abstract

This study provides a regional assessment of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over South America south of 20°S under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C above pre-industrial level. A particular analysis is performed over four sub-regions: southeastern South America (SESA), Pampa, southern Patagonia (SPat), and northern Patagonia (NPat), where special interest is given to the differences in impacts between the global warming targets under analysis. Results indicate that the ongoing global warming will maintain and even stress the observed trends in the region. SESA is the region projected to experience the largest increases in both mean and extreme temperature and precipitation, and the magnitude of change becomes larger under the warmer global warming targets. The Patagonian regions are expected to suffer robust reductions in the frequency of frost days (fd) and ice days (id), and there appears to be a relationship between the target and the magnitude of decrease in fd and id over these regions. The present study shows that the degree of global warming will play a key role in determining the intensity and frequency of the climate extremes which could significantly affect the socio-economic activities in the selected climatic sensitive regions over southern South America.