Global distribution of the invasive apple snail Pomacea canaliculata: analyzing possible shifts in climatic niche between native and invaded ranges and future spread

Abstract

Biological invasions represent one of the major threats to biodiversity. The apple snail Pomacea canaliculata is a South American freshwater snail that was introduced in many regions around the world, becoming a successful invader. In this work, we provide an updated and accurate database of P. canaliculata records worldwide, test the realized niche shift between native and invaded regions, and perform current and future ecological niche models. Records were retrieved from sampling data, scientific literature, biodiversity databases, and communication with researchers with expertise in apple snails. The niche of P. canaliculata substantially changed between its native range and its invaded ranges in Asia and the rest of America. Current and future suitability were modeled, considering both native and invaded records, to reflect all environmental conditions where snails’ populations can establish. Many temperate, subtropical, and tropical regions around the world are currently suitable, many are already inhabited, and others not colonized yet. Niche models predict that in the next 80 years, suitable areas would retract more than they expand on a global scale, with the worst scenario of climate change promoting the greatest changes. Most of the predicted changes would be the retraction in South America, Africa, and Australia and theexpansion toward higher latitudes, especially to northern Patagonia, northern USA, and central Europe. Niche shifts can be the result of limitations in dispersal, changes in biotic interactions, or adaptation to new climatic environments. Standardized evaluations across native and invaded ranges are needed to understand the role of contemporary evolution in the niche expansion and life history changes of P. canaliculata and its invasion success.