The expanding roles of Global South countries in solar radiation modification diplomacy: indicators, cases, and equitable pathways forward

Abstract

Global South countries are increasingly engaging in diplomacy surrounding solar radiation modification (SRM). However, few attempts have been made to document this expanded activity, and none assess its broader significance. In this article, we analyze the last decade of SRM activities in the Global South. We use the vision of anticipatory diplomacy, which calls for proactive efforts to anticipate and govern future scientific developments, to evaluate how well this recent activity is positioning Global South countries to lead on SRM research and decision-making. Through this lens, we identify 6 indicators of increased engagement: (1) expansion of research funding, (2) growing involvement in science and policy leadership, (3) growing involvement in public-facing discussion and debate, (4) the creation of new regional networks, (5) growing NGO-ledefforts, and (6) an increase in government statements. We further analyze four case studies that illustrate different ways actors in the Global South are engaging across diplomatic venues that could facilitate anticipatory diplomacy on SRM. Together, these insights challenge existing narratives and framings of SRM politics and diplomacy premised on either a North-South divide, or a monolithic or uninvolved Global South. We take a first step towards reconstructing a novel narrative of SRM politics premised on recognition of growing expertise across the Global South and the multiple and increasingly diverse and influential roles and positions Southern countries are taking on. To deepen this engagement we underscore three recommendations, rooted in principles of anticipatory diplomacy: (1) expand funding for Global South research; (2) ensure regional expertise informs decision-making; and (3) strengthen North-South and South–South collaborations.