Habitat Loss and Overexploitation Subordinate Climate Change as the Main Threats to the Southern Three‐Banded Armadillo in the Threatened South American Chaco

Abstract

Biodiversity in many regions is declining due to multiple extinction drivers, with habitat loss, overexploitation, and climate change often considered among the main ones. Understanding how biodiversity changes with these drivers is crucial for designing effective conservation strategies. The 1.1 million km2 South American Chaco is one of the ecosystems facing the highest deforestation levels worldwide, but also high exploitation and changes in weather patterns due to global climatic changes. The southern three-banded armadillo (Tolypeutes matacus) is endemic to this biome, where it is commonly hunted. Additionally, due to its rudimentary endothermic control system, it is susceptible to climatic changes. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) and threat index mapping, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change, habitat loss, and overexploitation on this species. Our findings suggest that, although climate change may expand the range of suitable habitats for the armadillo in the future, the current and intense threats from overexploitation and habitat degradation are likely to undermine these potential opportunities. Immediate action is required to address these pressing issues and halt the decline of the species´ population. The findings underscore the necessity for integrated conservation strategies that address multiple threats simultaneously and inform policy measures. These strategies can serve as a model for other species and regions facing similar conservation challenges, ensuring the effective allocation of limited conservation resources and guiding comprehensive approaches to biodiversity preservation.