Delving into the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis: A Firm-Level Analysis of the Private Sector's Excess Savings in Advanced Economies

Abstract

We document a persistent increase in excess savings (defined as the difference between gross savings and capital formation) and a steady decline of gross capital formation in a sample of non-financial firms from developed countries. These patterns developed even before the financial breakdown of 2007 reinforcing the case for a secular stagnation hypothesis. They go along with a deleveraging process and a decrease in the share of operating assets in total assets. We discuss three possible explanations for this long-term behavior: financial constraints, operative volatility, and the weakening of business dynamism itself.