Self-organising and self-learning model for soybean yield prediction

Abstract

Machine learning has arisen with advanced data analytics. Many factors influence crop yield, such as soil, amount of water, climate, and genotype. Determining factors that significantly influence yield prediction and identify the most appropriate predictive methods are important in yield management. It is critical to consider and study the combination of different crop factors and their impact on the yield. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to use advanced data analytic techniques to precisely predict the soybean crop yields, (2) to identify the most influential features that impact soybean predictions, (3) to illustrate the ability of Fuzzy Rule-Based (FRB) sub-systems, which are self-organizing, self-learning, and data-driven, by using the recently developed Autonomous Learning Multiple-Model First-order (ALMMo-1) system, and (4) to compare the performance with other well-known methods. The ALMMo-1 system is a transparent model, which stakeholders can easily read and interpret. The model is a data-driven and composed of prototypes selected from the actual data. Many factors affect the yield, and data clouds can be formed in the feature/data space based on the data density. The data cloud is the key to the IF part of FRB sub-systems, while the THEN part (the consequences of the IF condition) illustrates the yield prediction in the form of a linear regression model, which consists of the yield features or factors. In addition, the model can determine the most influential features of the yield prediction online. The model shows an excellent prediction accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0883, and Non-Dimensional Error Index (NDEI) of 0.0611, which is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.