Salt dust storms from the Mar Chiquita Lagoon (Argentina): 20-year occurrence analysis and WRF-Chem modeling of PM10 distribution in selected case studies

Abstract

Between 2018 and 2024, a renewed and persistent decline in water level was observed in the Mar Chiquita Lagoon, Córdoba Province, Argentina. This prompted an investigation into how this intensified decrease affected the frequency of salt dust storm occurrences. In this study, we analyze events from this period and compare them with those documented during the previous interval (2004–2013). Approximately 200 salt dust storms were identified between 2004 and 2024. These events originate from saline deposits exposed along the lagoon’s shorelines as a result of sustained water-level lowering since 2003, which has generated extensive areas of wind-erodible saline sediments. The objective of this work is to examine the frequency and characteristics of these storms using satellite imagery and hydrometeorological data. Occurrence conditions and spatial extent were assessed as a function of event frequency, wind speed and direction, water levels, and available coastal surface area. The highest storm frequency was recorded during winter (June–September) under wind speeds exceeding 30 km·h−1. The most common plume length was approximately 150 km in both the northern and southern directions, with a maximum extent of 580 km to the south. Additionally, two selected events were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to characterize PM10 dispersion and concentration patterns. Satellite imagery was used to compare with the simulated plume evolution, and observations from an air-quality monitoring station served to validate the model output. Overall, simulations showed good first-order agreement with observed events.