Tree-ring based reconstruction of Río Bermejo streamflow in subtropical South America

Abstract

Precipitation on the subtropical Andes in northwestern Argentina is the main source of freshwater to rivers, which provide water for consumption, hydroelectric generation and irrigation of agricultural fields. Regional streamflow records for the past 60years indicate a period of enhanced inter-annual and inter-decadal variability during recent decades. Here we present a long-term perspective of streamflow variations for Río Bermejo, a major river in the subtropics of Argentina-Bolivia. This streamflow reconstruction covers the period 1680-2001 and was performed using principal component regression models based on precipitation sensitive tree-ring width series. Composite tree-ring chronologies from Juglans australis, Cedrela lilloi and Schinopsis lorentzii were used as predictors to reconstruct the May-October (dry season) streamflow variations. Monthly instrumental streamflow records were used to assess the temporal relationship between climatic data and tree-ring records. The regression model explains 52% of the variance of May-October Bermejo discharge (R2 adj=0.499) over the period 1941-1992. Analyses of the frequency, intensity and duration of pluvials and droughts indicates a sustained increase in streamflow since the 1960s, which is exceptional since 1680. Pearson's correlation coefficients between Río Bermejo records against gridded interpolated precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation indicate that the South American monsoon is the main source of regional precipitation and the consequent discharge of subtropical rivers in northern Argentina. Long-term streamflow reconstructions in subtropical South America contribute to our understanding of past and present climate variations and the related large-scale atmospheric features that drive these variations.