Artículo
Spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic tropical city in northern Argentina
Gil, José Fernando
; Palacios Sonzini, Julio Maximiliano
; Krolewiecki, Alejandro Javier
; Cortada, Pedro; Flores, Rosana; Jaime, Cesar; Arias, Luis; Villalpando, Carlos; Alberti D'amato, Anahí Maitén; Nasser, Julio Rubén; Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Fecha de publicación:
06/2016
Editorial:
Elsevier Science
Revista:
Acta Tropica
ISSN:
0001-706X
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Resumen
After more than eighty years dengue reemerged in Argentina in 1997. Since then, the largest epidemic in terms of geographical extent, magnitude and mortality, was recorded in 2009. In this report we analyzed the DEN-1 epidemic spread in Orán, a mid-size city in a non-endemic tropical area in Northern Argentina, and its correlation with demographic and socioeconomic factors. Cases were diagnosed by ELISA between January and June 2009. We applied a space-time and spatial scan statistic under a Poisson model. Possible association between dengue incidence and socio-economic variables was studied with the Spearman correlation test. The epidemic started from an imported case from Bolivia and space-time analysis detected two clusters: one on February and other in April (in the south and the northeast of the city respectively) with risk ratios of 25.24 and 4.07 (p <0.01). Subsequent cases spread widely around the city without significant space-temporal clustering. Maximum values of the entomological indices were observed in January, at the beginning of the epidemic (B = 21.96; LH = 8.39). No statistically significant association between socioeconomic variables and dengue incidence was found but positive correlation between population size and the number of cases (p < 0.05) was detected. Two mechanisms may explain the observed pattern of epidemic spread in this non-endemic tropical city: a) Short range dispersal of mosquitoes and people generates clusters of cases and b) long-distance (within the city) human movement contributes to a quasi-random distribution of cases.
Palabras clave:
Aedes Aegypti
,
Dengue
,
Larval Indexes
,
Non-Endemic City
,
Spatial Analysis
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Articulos(IPE)
Articulos de INST.DE PATOLOGIA EXPERIMENTAL
Articulos de INST.DE PATOLOGIA EXPERIMENTAL
Citación
Gil, José Fernando; Palacios Sonzini, Julio Maximiliano; Krolewiecki, Alejandro Javier; Cortada, Pedro; Flores, Rosana; et al.; Spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic tropical city in northern Argentina; Elsevier Science; Acta Tropica; 158; 6-2016; 24-31
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