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Artículo

An extraordinary dry season precipitation event in the subtropical Andes: Drivers, impacts and predictability

Valenzuela, Raúl; Garreaud, René; Vergara Dal Pont, Iván PabloIcon ; Campos, Diego; Viale, MaximilianoIcon ; Rondanelli, Roberto
Fecha de publicación: 09/2022
Editorial: Elsevier
Revista: Weather and Climate Extremes
ISSN: 2212-0947
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas

Resumen

A major storm impacted the subtropical Andes during 28–31 January 2021 producing 4-days accumulated precipitation up to 100 mm over central-south Chile. These are high accumulations even for winter events but the storm occurred in the middle of the summer when precipitation is virtually absent, conferring it an extraordinary character. Similar storms have occurred only 2–3 times in the past century. The January 2021 event included periods of high rainfall intensity, hail and lighting, causing dozens of landslides and flash floods with the concomitant social impacts and economical losses. Here we examine the meteorological drivers of this storm at multiples scales, its climatological context, the associated surface impacts, and some aspects of its predictability. About a week before the storm development over central Chile, a large-scale perturbation in the central South Pacific set the stage for the formation of a zonal jet aloft and zonal atmospheric river (ZAR) that extended eastward until reaching the west coast of South America. The ZAR landfalled at 39°S and its subsequent northward displacement resulted in copious orographic precipitation over the Andes and adjacent lowlands, concomitant with a relatively warm environment during the first phase of the storm (28–29 January). During the second phase (30–31 January) the ZAR decayed rapidly but left behind significant amount of water vapor and the formation of a cut-off low (COL) in its poleward flank. The COL facilitated both advection of cyclonic vorticity and cold air at mid-levels, setting the environment for deep convection, intense rain showers, significant lightning activity, and hail. An assessment of the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) indicates that the model captured well the 96-h precipitation accumulation (28–31 January) in terms of timing and spatial extent. However, specific zones with the largest accumulations varied as a function of lead time. The more stable precipitation during the ZAR phase was better predicted than the convective precipitation during the COL phase. Proper dissemination of these forecast and recently established infrastructure contributed to ease the impact of this extraordinary event on the general population.
Palabras clave: ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS , EXTREME PRECIPITATION , LANDSIDES , SUBTROPICAL ANDES
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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/210453
URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000548
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100472
Colecciones
Articulos(IANIGLA)
Articulos de INST. ARG. DE NIVOLOGIA, GLACIOLOGIA Y CS. AMBIENT
Articulos(IPATEC)
Articulos de INSTITUTO ANDINO PATAGONICO DE TECNOLOGIAS BIOLOGICAS Y GEOAMBIENTALES
Citación
Valenzuela, Raúl; Garreaud, René; Vergara Dal Pont, Iván Pablo; Campos, Diego; Viale, Maximiliano; et al.; An extraordinary dry season precipitation event in the subtropical Andes: Drivers, impacts and predictability; Elsevier; Weather and Climate Extremes; 37; 9-2022; 1-16
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