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dc.contributor.author
Stollenwerk, Nico
dc.contributor.author
Spaziani, Stefano
dc.contributor.author
Mar, Javier
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Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren
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Knopoff, Damián Alejandro
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dc.contributor.author
Cusimano, Nicole
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Anam, Vizda
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Shrivastava, Akhil
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Aguiar, Maíra
dc.date.available
2023-07-12T11:32:26Z
dc.date.issued
2022-03-03
dc.identifier.citation
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/203394
dc.description.abstract
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
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SEASONALITY
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CHAOS
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BIFURCATION THEORY
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Matemática Aplicada
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dc.subject.classification
Matemáticas
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2023-07-05T15:13:38Z
dc.identifier.eissn
2577-7408
dc.journal.number
3556043
dc.journal.pagination
1-12
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
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dc.journal.ciudad
Londres
dc.description.fil
Fil: Stollenwerk, Nico. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Spaziani, Stefano. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Mar, Javier. Biodonostia Health Research Institute; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Knopoff, Damián Alejandro. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Centro de Investigación y Estudios de Matemática; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Cusimano, Nicole. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Anam, Vizda. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Shrivastava, Akhil. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Aguiar, Maíra. Basque Center For Applied Mathematics; España
dc.journal.title
Computational and Mathematical Methods
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmm/2022/3556043/
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/3556043
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