Artículo
Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro
; Cusimano, Nicole; Anam, Vizda; Shrivastava, Akhil; Aguiar, Maíra
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Fecha de publicación:
03/03/2022
Editorial:
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Revista:
Computational and Mathematical Methods
e-ISSN:
2577-7408
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Resumen
We investigate models to describe respiratory diseases with fast mutating virus pathogens such that after some years the aquired resistance is lost and hosts can be infected with new variants of the pathogen. Such models were initially suggested for respiartory diseases like influenza, showing complex dynamics in reasonable parameter regions when comparing to historic empirical influenza like illness data, e.g., from Ille de France. The seasonal forcing typical for respiratory diseases gives rise to the different rich dynamical scenarios with even small parameter changes. Especially the seasonality of the infection leads for small values already to period doubling bifurcations into chaos, besides additional coexisting attractors. Such models could in the future also play a role in understanding the presently experienced COVID-19 pandemic, under emerging new variants and with only limited vaccine efficacies against newly upcoming variants. From first period doubling bifurcations, we can eventually infer at which close by parameter regions complex dynamics including deterministic chaos can arise.
Palabras clave:
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELS
,
SEASONALITY
,
CHAOS
,
BIFURCATION THEORY
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Articulos(CIEM)
Articulos de CENT.INV.Y ESTUDIOS DE MATEMATICA DE CORDOBA(P)
Articulos de CENT.INV.Y ESTUDIOS DE MATEMATICA DE CORDOBA(P)
Citación
Stollenwerk, Nico; Spaziani, Stefano; Mar, Javier; Arrizabalaga, Irati Eguiguren; Knopoff, Damián Alejandro; et al.; Seasonally forced SIR systems applied to respiratory infectious diseases, bifurcations, and chaos; Hindawi Publishing Corporation; Computational and Mathematical Methods; 3556043; 3-3-2022; 1-12
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