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dc.contributor.author
Gulizia, Carla
dc.contributor.author
Pirotte, Martín N.
dc.date.available
2022-12-16T13:39:35Z
dc.date.issued
2021-05
dc.identifier.citation
Gulizia, Carla; Pirotte, Martín N.; Characterization of simulated extreme El Niño events and projected impacts on South American climate extremes by a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 42; 1; 5-2021; 48-62
dc.identifier.issn
0899-8418
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/181497
dc.description.abstract
In this study the simulated extreme and moderate El Niño events (e.g., frequency of occurrence and spatial variability) are characterized and the historical teleconnections on precipitation and temperature climate extremes in South America are analysed. Future projected changes in these teleconnections under a global warming context are also addressed. For this purpose a set of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) simulations derived from three experiments (historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered. The study period is 1916–2100. As El Niño is seasonally phase-locked, peaking in late austral spring and summer, the present analysis is carried out for these two seasons, as well as annually. Results indicate that extreme El Niño events are projected to double their occurrence considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while a less pronounced increase is projected for moderate El Niño events. Most of these events show a similar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies: a positive centre in the central equatorial Pacific that extends eastward to the coast of America. In a global warming context, the resemblance between these events may decrease. Overall, the spatial structure of the impacts of El Niño are expected to be similar between moderate and extreme events, although in some cases (regions and seasons), a higher intensity is observed considering the events characterized as extreme El Niños rather than moderate ones. As extreme El Niño events are expected to be more frequent in the future, the impacts on climate extremes as well as the associated socioeconomic impacts would also take place much more frequently too.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CLIMATE EXTREMES
dc.subject
CMIP5
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EXTREME EL NIÑO EVENTS
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GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
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PRECIPITATION
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SOUTH AMERICA
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TEMPERATURE
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Characterization of simulated extreme El Niño events and projected impacts on South American climate extremes by a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2022-09-20T18:45:11Z
dc.journal.volume
42
dc.journal.number
1
dc.journal.pagination
48-62
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
dc.journal.ciudad
Londres
dc.description.fil
Fil: Gulizia, Carla. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Pirotte, Martín N.. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina
dc.journal.title
International Journal of Climatology
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.7231
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7231
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