Characterization of simulated extreme El Niño events and projected impacts on South American climate extremes by a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models

Abstract

In this study the simulated extreme and moderate El Niño events (e.g., frequency of occurrence and spatial variability) are characterized and the historical teleconnections on precipitation and temperature climate extremes in South America are analysed. Future projected changes in these teleconnections under a global warming context are also addressed. For this purpose a set of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) simulations derived from three experiments (historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered. The study period is 1916–2100. As El Niño is seasonally phase-locked, peaking in late austral spring and summer, the present analysis is carried out for these two seasons, as well as annually. Results indicate that extreme El Niño events are projected to double their occurrence considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while a less pronounced increase is projected for moderate El Niño events. Most of these events show a similar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies: a positive centre in the central equatorial Pacific that extends eastward to the coast of America. In a global warming context, the resemblance between these events may decrease. Overall, the spatial structure of the impacts of El Niño are expected to be similar between moderate and extreme events, although in some cases (regions and seasons), a higher intensity is observed considering the events characterized as extreme El Niños rather than moderate ones. As extreme El Niño events are expected to be more frequent in the future, the impacts on climate extremes as well as the associated socioeconomic impacts would also take place much more frequently too.