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dc.contributor.author
Naumann, Gustavo
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dc.contributor.author
Alfieri, L.
dc.contributor.author
Wyser, K.
dc.contributor.author
Mentaschi, L.
dc.contributor.author
Betts, R.A.
dc.contributor.author
Carrao, H.
dc.contributor.author
Spinoni, J.
dc.contributor.author
Vogt, J.
dc.contributor.author
Feyen, L.
dc.date.available
2020-01-07T14:15:59Z
dc.date.issued
2018-04
dc.identifier.citation
Naumann, Gustavo; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R.A.; et al.; Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming; American Geophysical Union; Geophysical Research Letters; 45; 7; 4-2018; 3285-3296
dc.identifier.issn
0094-8276
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/93745
dc.description.abstract
Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply‐demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north‐west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South‐eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100‐year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
American Geophysical Union
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CHANGE
dc.subject
CLIMATE
dc.subject
DROUGHT
dc.subject
GLOBAL
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Global changes in drought conditions under different levels of warming
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2019-12-16T19:16:05Z
dc.journal.volume
45
dc.journal.number
7
dc.journal.pagination
3285-3296
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission - Dg Jrc; Italia
dc.journal.title
Geophysical Research Letters
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076521
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076521
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