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dc.contributor.author
Spinoni, Jonathan
dc.contributor.author
Vogt, Jürgen V.
dc.contributor.author
Naumann, Gustavo
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dc.contributor.author
Barbosa, Paulo
dc.contributor.author
Dosio, Alessandro
dc.date.available
2019-12-19T18:03:30Z
dc.date.issued
2018-03
dc.identifier.citation
Spinoni, Jonathan; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Dosio, Alessandro; Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 38; 4; 3-2018; 1718-1736
dc.identifier.issn
0899-8418
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/92548
dc.description.abstract
As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3- and 12-month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias-adjusted high-resolution (0.11°) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
dc.subject
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
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DROUGHT
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EURO-CORDEX
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EUROPE
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Investigación Climatológica
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2019-12-16T19:16:09Z
dc.journal.volume
38
dc.journal.number
4
dc.journal.pagination
1718-1736
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
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dc.journal.ciudad
Londres
dc.description.fil
Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
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Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Barbosa, Paulo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Dosio, Alessandro. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.journal.title
International Journal of Climatology
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5291
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291
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