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dc.contributor.author
Aragón, Luis Enrique
dc.contributor.author
Jagla, Eduardo Alberto
dc.date.available
2016-12-06T21:09:01Z
dc.date.issued
2013-10
dc.identifier.citation
Aragón, Luis Enrique; Jagla, Eduardo Alberto; Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault; Oxford University Press; Geophysical Journal International; 195; 10-2013; 17631-17639
dc.identifier.issn
0956-540X
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/8942
dc.description.abstract
We study a recently proposed statistical physics model of earthquake dynamics that includes stress relaxation in the plates as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to reproduce many realistic features of seismic phenomena, such as: the Gutenberg?Richter law for the event size distribution, the Omori law for aftershocks and an overall velocity-weakening dependence of the average friction force. Here, we analyse the dynamics of the model in detail, in order to investigate to what extent the occurrence of large events in the model can be anticipated. We systematically find that large events occur in fault patches where strain accumulation has exceeded some threshold value. The spatial extent of these patches (which correlate with the magnitude of forthcoming events) can be calculated if the strain state of the system is supposed to be known. In addition, we find that some large events are preceded by well-defined precursor activity. This allows, in a fraction of cases, to complement the forecast of magnitude and spatial location, with a sensible prediction of time of occurrence. Although our work is exclusively limited to the numerical model analysed, we argue that it gives new breath to earthquake forecast techniques that combine the historical analysis of seismic activity with a search of appropriate precursor activity.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Oxford University Press
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Time-Series Analysis
dc.subject
Earthquake Dynamics
dc.subject
Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting And Prediction
dc.subject
Computational Seismology
dc.subject
Spatial Analysis
dc.subject.classification
Física de los Materiales Condensados
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Físicas
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Spatial and temporal forecasting of large earthquakes in a spring-block model of a fault
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2016-12-06T16:32:06Z
dc.identifier.eissn
1365-246X
dc.journal.volume
195
dc.journal.pagination
17631-17639
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
dc.journal.ciudad
Londres
dc.description.fil
Fil: Aragón, Luis Enrique. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Jagla, Eduardo Alberto. Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica. Centro Atomico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Area de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Geophysical Journal International
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/195/3/1763
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http:/dx.doi.org/ 10.1093/gji/ggt330
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