Contenido tecnológico de las exportaciones argentinas (1996-2011) ¿Cambio estructural entre la convertibilidad y postconvertibilidad?

Abstract

Este trabajo contiene un análisis de las exportaciones argentinas en los dieciséis años comprendidos en el período 1996-2011. El enfoque utilizado hará énfasis principalmente en la composición de los bienes exportados según su grado de contenido tecnológico. Se partirá de la premisa de que un mayor contenido tecnológico en las exportaciones de un país -siempre y cuando dicho contenido tecnológico sea producido localmente y no directamente importado, como ocurre en su máxima expresión en la maquila- propiciará mayores facilidades para el desarrollo en el largo plazo. El análisis del caso argentino mostrará que la crisis terminal de la convertibilidad implicó una mayor reprimarización de las exportaciones, que se logró revertir parcialmente a partir de 2003.

This paper contains an analysis of Argentine exports between 1996 and 2011. The approach will focus mainly on the composition of exported products according to their degree of technological content. A basic principle in this analysis will be that a higher technological content of exports of a country will contribute to greater opportunities for economic development in the long term -provided that such technological content is produced locally and not directly imported as it occurs in the case of the maquila in its highest expression-. The analysis of the Argentine case shows that the terminal crisis of the convertibility system implied a reprimarization of its exports, which was partially reversed after 2003. An increase in complexity of exports took place mainly between 2003 and 2006, due to a combination of a macroeconomic framework favourable to the export of this type of products -as a consequence of the mega devaluation of the national currency in 2002-, combined with the “rebound” effect that involved the overcoming of the recession of 1998-2002, and also the crisis in the energy sector, which rendered fuel exports less important. Since 2007, the higher appreciation of the Argentine peso, combined with weak industrial development policies in the manufacturing sector, plus the increasing international prices of commodities, diminished the dynamism of that process. Even more, from 2009, the complexity of Argentine exports began to drop, leading to an emerging primarization. Within this context, we will attempt to describe which the main sectors that influenced the path followed by the technological content of Argentine exports were.