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dc.contributor.author
Petri de Odriozola, Elisa
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Quintana, Ana María
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González, Victor
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Pasetto, Roque Antonio
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Utgés, María Eugenia
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Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto
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Arnaiz, Maria Rosa
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dc.date.available
2019-05-02T16:22:03Z
dc.date.issued
2017-04
dc.identifier.citation
Petri de Odriozola, Elisa; Quintana, Ana María; González, Victor; Pasetto, Roque Antonio; Utgés, María Eugenia; et al.; Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination; Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 112; 6; 4-2017; 419-427
dc.identifier.issn
0074-0276
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/75405
dc.description.abstract
BACKGROUND: Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking. OBJECTIVES We analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020. METHODS: Descriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: We found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases). MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Corrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Epidemiology
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Forecast
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Infectious Disease
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Leprosy
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Mycobacterium Leprae
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Epidemiología
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Ciencias de la Salud
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CIENCIAS MÉDICAS Y DE LA SALUD
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dc.title
Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: Forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2019-04-11T20:12:18Z
dc.identifier.eissn
1678-8060
dc.journal.volume
112
dc.journal.number
6
dc.journal.pagination
419-427
dc.journal.pais
Brasil
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dc.journal.ciudad
Río de Janeiro
dc.description.fil
Fil: Petri de Odriozola, Elisa. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
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Fil: Quintana, Ana María. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
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Fil: González, Victor. Programa Nacional para el Control de Tuberculosis y Lepra; Argentina
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Fil: Pasetto, Roque Antonio. Programa Provincial para el Control de Leishmaniasis y Lepra; Argentina
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Fil: Utgés, María Eugenia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Bruzzone, Octavio Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Arnaiz, Maria Rosa. Dirección Nacional de Institutos de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud. Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico e Investigaciones Endemo-epidémicas; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-02760160490
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://ref.scielo.org/cr6vrn
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br/article/6273/0490_towards-leprosy-elimination-by-2020-forecasts-of-epidemiological-indicators-of-leprosy-in-corrientes-a-province-of-northeastern-argentina-that-is-a-pioneer-in-leprosy-elimination
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