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dc.contributor.author
Blazquez, Josefina
dc.contributor.author
Nuñez, Mario Nestor
dc.date.available
2015-06-15T18:13:04Z
dc.date.issued
2013-08
dc.identifier.citation
Blazquez, Josefina; Nuñez, Mario Nestor; Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 41; 3; 8-2013; 1039-1056
dc.identifier.issn
0930-7575
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/739
dc.description.abstract
This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Uncertianties
dc.subject
Projections
dc.subject
South America
dc.subject
Wcrp-Cmip3 And Wcrp-Cmip5 Models
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y Relacionadas Con El Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
dc.title
Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2016-03-30 10:35:44.97925-03
dc.journal.volume
41
dc.journal.number
3
dc.journal.pagination
1039-1056
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
dc.journal.ciudad
Berlin
dc.description.fil
Fil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Invest.cientif.y Tecnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina;
dc.description.fil
Fil: Nuñez, Mario Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Invest.cientif.y Tecnicas. Oficina de Coordinacion Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina;
dc.journal.title
Climate Dynamics
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.springerlink.com/content/3q25364814788h15
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