Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields

Abstract

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth?s upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show that cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere, taking advantage of information about both the dipolar and quadrupolar moments of the solar magnetic field during minimum.