Artículo
Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics
Valdez, Lucas Daniel
; Sibona, Gustavo Javier
; Diaz, Luis Adrian
; Contigiani de Minio, Marta Silvia; Condat, Carlos
Fecha de publicación:
21/05/2017
Editorial:
Academic Press Ltd - Elsevier Science Ltd
Revista:
Journal of Theoretical Biology
ISSN:
0022-5193
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Resumen
The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes Mmax. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on Mmax. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which Mmax is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of Mmax on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.
Palabras clave:
Arbovirus
,
Culex
,
Mathematical Modeling
,
Mosquito Abundance
,
Rainfall
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Articulos(IFEG)
Articulos de INST.DE FISICA ENRIQUE GAVIOLA
Articulos de INST.DE FISICA ENRIQUE GAVIOLA
Citación
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Diaz, Luis Adrian; Contigiani de Minio, Marta Silvia; Condat, Carlos; Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics; Academic Press Ltd - Elsevier Science Ltd; Journal of Theoretical Biology; 421; 21-5-2017; 28-38
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