Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem
dc.contributor.author
Valdez, Lucas Daniel
dc.contributor.author
Aragão Rêgo, H.H.
dc.contributor.author
Stanley, H. E.
dc.contributor.author
Braunstein, Lidia Adriana
dc.date.available
2018-10-23T20:14:12Z
dc.date.issued
2015-07
dc.identifier.citation
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Aragão Rêgo, H.H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana; Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies; Nature Publishing Group; Scientific Reports; 5; 7-2015; 1-10
dc.identifier.issn
2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/62958
dc.description.abstract
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August - which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Nature Publishing Group
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Ebola
dc.subject
Epidemic
dc.subject
Metapopulation Models
dc.subject.classification
Enfermedades Infecciosas
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Salud
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS MÉDICAS Y DE LA SALUD
dc.title
Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-10-23T13:46:45Z
dc.journal.volume
5
dc.journal.pagination
1-10
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
dc.description.fil
Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Aragão Rêgo, H.H.. Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Maranhão; Brasil
dc.description.fil
Fil: Stanley, H. E.. Boston University; Estados Unidos
dc.description.fil
Fil: Braunstein, Lidia Adriana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Scientific Reports
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.nature.com/articles/srep12172
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep12172
Archivos asociados