Artículo
Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria
; Holzmann, Ingrid
; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago
; Oklander, Luciana Inés
; Kowalewski, Miguel Martin
; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
; Goenaga, Silvina; Martínez, Mariela Florencia
; Lestani, Eduardo Ariel
; Desbiez, Arnaud L. J.; Miller, Philip
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Fecha de publicación:
11/2015
Editorial:
Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz
Revista:
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
ISSN:
0074-0276
e-ISSN:
1678-8060
Idioma:
Inglés
Tipo de recurso:
Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Resumen
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
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Articulos(CCT - NORDESTE)
Articulos de CTRO.CIENTIFICO TECNOL.CONICET - NORDESTE
Articulos de CTRO.CIENTIFICO TECNOL.CONICET - NORDESTE
Articulos(IBIGEO)
Articulos de INST.DE BIO Y GEOCIENCIAS DEL NOA
Articulos de INST.DE BIO Y GEOCIENCIAS DEL NOA
Articulos(IBS)
Articulos de INSTITUTO DE BIOLOGIA SUBTROPICAL
Articulos de INSTITUTO DE BIOLOGIA SUBTROPICAL
Citación
Moreno, Eduardo S.; Agostini, Ilaria; Holzmann, Ingrid; Di Bitetti, Mario Santiago; Oklander, Luciana Inés; et al.; Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodeling approach based in population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics; Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz; Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz; 110; 7; 11-2015; 865-876
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