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dc.contributor.author
Spinoni, J.
dc.contributor.author
Naumann, Gustavo
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dc.contributor.author
Vogt, J.
dc.date.available
2018-09-18T21:48:41Z
dc.date.issued
2015-07
dc.identifier.citation
Spinoni, J.; Naumann, Gustavo; Vogt, J.; Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario; Copernicus Publications; Advances in Science and Research; 12; 1; 7-2015; 179-186
dc.identifier.issn
1992-0628
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/60172
dc.description.abstract
Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25°x0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: Southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in Northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Copernicus Publications
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Drought
dc.subject
Patterns
dc.subject
Scenarios
dc.subject.classification
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-09-13T13:12:33Z
dc.identifier.eissn
1992-0636
dc.journal.volume
12
dc.journal.number
1
dc.journal.pagination
179-186
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
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dc.journal.ciudad
Göttingen
dc.description.fil
Fil: Spinoni, J.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre. Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Vogt, J.. European Commission. Joint Research Centre. Institute for the Environment and Sustainability; Italia
dc.journal.title
Advances in Science and Research
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.adv-sci-res.net/12/179/2015/asr-12-179-2015.html
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015
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